from the Era of Excess: next 5 to 10years

Stephen Roach, the chairman of Morgan Stanley in Asia, described last several years or so as "Era of Excess".

http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=62bRjaEDjM4

The world financial system will be transferred rapidly.
We should construct a new financial governance which assures the sustainable growth.
Deeper appriciation of long term view is needed.

However, at the same time, it is important to utilise what we invented in these Era of excess: financial engineering technologies such as derivatives.

Everyone says risk management takes crucially important place, and because of derivatives this world crisis has happened: is this true?
We can remember that derivatives used to be a means to hedge the risk, not to just earn a profit. Everyone wanted to hedge the risk by buying lotsof derivatives. Now, they suddenly noticed that what they believed as the insurance to escape the loss actually doesn't work.

If that so, I believe the technology of derivatives whould be improved more and more, instead of avoiding those.

Of course, now, market is quite bear due to the serious credid crunch. Real economy is getting the unbelievable damage too. So many famous companies such as Toyota, Sony, NEC and so on are now cutting off their employees. This is too amazing.

In coming 3 years, the economy will continue to get downward.


But after that..?



There should be some safer area, where many people gain "abundance", or.. maybe even right now... some places in the world are quite far from this crisis and very easy to start and raise businesses..


To get involved such a positive trend is greatly important.
Coming 5 to 10 years would be a key for my whole life.

Grasp the trend. Be opportunistic.

And, be hungry for fostering your own public mind.